ohfootball.io

Accuracy

How Good Are The Predictions?

This page grades the model predictions: overall metrics, how often the favorite won, how close the probabilities were to what happened, and where the model did atrociously.

Overall Metrics

The following metrics are based on games from 2000 and beyond.

Accuracy
80.8%
Brier score
0.1301
Log loss
0.3993
Games scored
99,151

Week 11 Results

Accuracy
88.2%
Right
97 of 110
Expected
90.6
Brier score
0.1075

The model called the exact margin in 5 of 110 games with a winner.

1 game of the week has no result yet.

Biggest upsets of the week

  1. Greenon27beatCarlisle226.5% chance
  2. Reynoldsburg19beatPickerington Central1516.5% chance
  3. Westland16beatSt John's Jesuit1016.9% chance
  4. Paulding21beatAllen East1717.4% chance
  5. Beavercreek24beatHilliard Bradley2120.6% chance

Exact margins of the week

  1. Ursuline34beatLake Catholic20Called W by 14
  2. Jackson28beatLinden McKinley14Called W by 14
  3. Patrick Henry40beatWestern Reserve32Called W by 8
  4. Newcomerstown38beatCenterburg22Called W by 16
  5. St Paul21beatEast Canton20Called W by 1

This Season

2026 accuracy by week

The numbers of each week
  • Week 1: 70.9% of 344 games
  • Week 2: 74.9% of 334 games
  • Week 3: 77.9% of 335 games
  • Week 4: 83.8% of 334 games
  • Week 5: 86.7% of 338 games
  • Week 6: 87.2% of 336 games
  • Week 7: 85.5% of 339 games
  • Week 8: 85.5% of 337 games
  • Week 9: 85.6% of 341 games
  • Week 10: 85.3% of 340 games
  • Week 11: 88.2% of 110 games

All Seasons

Accuracy by season

The numbers of each season
  • 1973: 77.4% of 3,395 games
  • 1974: 76.0% of 3,453 games
  • 1975: 74.1% of 3,467 games
  • 1976: 76.2% of 3,507 games
  • 1977: 75.3% of 3,523 games
  • 1978: 76.3% of 3,509 games
  • 1979: 75.6% of 3,534 games
  • 1980: 78.1% of 3,545 games
  • 1981: 77.1% of 3,569 games
  • 1982: 77.8% of 3,536 games
  • 1983: 77.7% of 3,550 games
  • 1984: 76.0% of 3,552 games
  • 1985: 75.8% of 3,591 games
  • 1986: 76.0% of 3,585 games
  • 1987: 76.2% of 3,575 games
  • 1988: 76.2% of 3,566 games
  • 1989: 77.6% of 3,552 games
  • 1990: 77.4% of 3,548 games
  • 1991: 77.1% of 3,526 games
  • 1992: 78.4% of 3,520 games
  • 1993: 78.1% of 3,488 games
  • 1994: 77.3% of 3,517 games
  • 1995: 78.3% of 3,500 games
  • 1996: 79.3% of 3,510 games
  • 1997: 79.0% of 3,522 games
  • 1998: 79.9% of 3,540 games
  • 1999: 79.7% of 3,642 games
  • 2000: 79.3% of 3,651 games
  • 2001: 79.6% of 3,619 games
  • 2002: 78.5% of 3,642 games
  • 2003: 79.1% of 3,655 games
  • 2004: 79.7% of 3,650 games
  • 2005: 78.4% of 3,649 games
  • 2006: 79.8% of 3,667 games
  • 2007: 80.7% of 3,685 games
  • 2008: 80.6% of 3,697 games
  • 2009: 80.7% of 3,683 games
  • 2010: 80.9% of 3,682 games
  • 2011: 81.3% of 3,684 games
  • 2012: 79.5% of 3,681 games
  • 2013: 82.2% of 3,734 games
  • 2014: 80.6% of 3,735 games
  • 2015: 79.3% of 3,713 games
  • 2016: 81.7% of 3,730 games
  • 2017: 81.9% of 3,703 games
  • 2018: 80.8% of 3,709 games
  • 2019: 81.6% of 3,680 games
  • 2020: 80.5% of 2,933 games
  • 2021: 83.1% of 3,747 games
  • 2022: 82.6% of 3,861 games
  • 2023: 83.0% of 3,865 games
  • 2024: 82.2% of 3,864 games
  • 2025: 82.5% of 3,744 games
  • 2026 (in progress): 82.5% of 3,488 games

By Phase

Early (weeks 1–3)
27,724
75.6%
0.1627
0.4887
Mid (weeks 4–7)
37,009
82.6%
0.1191
0.3692
Late (week 8 on)
27,665
84.0%
0.1106
0.3452
Playoffs
6,753
80.1%
0.1367
0.4180

Calibration

A model that says 75% should be right about 75 times in 100. Each dot is the games in which the favorite had a chance in one band of five points. A dot on the diagonal is a band where the model was exactly as sure as it should have been.

Favorite won vs. what the model said

In the 95–100% band, the model said 98.1% on average and the favorite won 98.6% of 25,469 games. The table has the numbers of each band.
50–55%
6,606
6.7%
52.5%
51.7%
55–60%
6,718
6.8%
57.5%
56.8%
60–65%
6,743
6.8%
62.5%
62.0%
65–70%
7,102
7.2%
67.5%
67.1%
70–75%
7,263
7.3%
72.6%
71.2%
75–80%
7,887
8.0%
77.5%
77.1%
80–85%
8,755
8.8%
82.5%
82.1%
85–90%
9,911
10.0%
87.6%
87.0%
90–95%
12,697
12.8%
92.6%
93.0%
95–100%
25,469
25.7%
98.1%
98.6%

Hall Of Fame

The top 10 games where the model exactly predicted the outcome.

Warren G Harding18

beat St Edward 16

Nov 9, 2002

St Edward16
W by 2
Nov 9, 2002
Massillon Washington15

beat St Edward 13

Sep 15, 2023

St Edward13
W by 2
Sep 15, 2023
Walsh Jesuit38

beat Central Catholic 25

Sep 4, 2026

Central Catholic25
W by 13
Sep 4, 2026
Warren G Harding16

beat Boardman 7

Nov 3, 2001

Boardman7
W by 9
Nov 3, 2001
Archbishop Moeller13

beat St Xavier 7

Sep 26, 2014

St Xavier7
W by 6
Sep 26, 2014
St Xavier17

beat St Ignatius 0

Oct 21, 2006

St Ignatius0
W by 17
Oct 21, 2006
St Edward42

beat Glenville 22

Nov 13, 2010

Glenville22
W by 20
Nov 13, 2010
St Ignatius41

beat Mentor 31

Sep 1, 2017

Mentor31
W by 10
Sep 1, 2017
Central Catholic28

beat Avon 20

Nov 18, 2022

Avon20
W by 8
Nov 18, 2022
St Edward33

beat St Ignatius 10

Oct 30, 2010

St Ignatius10
W by 23
Oct 30, 2010

Hall Of Shame

The weeks with the largest gap between the winners that the model expected to pick and the winners that it picked.

Week 7, 2012

Oct 4 – 6

271
292
−21
77.0%

Week 4, 2015

Sep 17 – 19

267
287
−20
76.9%

Week 4, 2014

Sep 18 – 20

276
292
−16
78.4%

Week 2, 2005

Sep 1 – 3

239
255
−16
70.5%

Week 2, 2012

Aug 30 – Sep 1

251
265
−14
72.8%

Week 9, 2002

Oct 17 – 19

274
288
−14
78.7%

Week 2, 2015

Sep 3 – 7

254
268
−14
73.2%

Week 1, 2000

Aug 24 – 26

240
253
−13
69.0%

Week 1, 2002

Aug 22 – 24

237
249
−12
68.5%

Week 7, 2003

Oct 3 – 4

281
293
−12
80.5%

Biggest Upsets

The games since 2000 in which the winner had the lowest chance.

Greenville14

beat Bishop Watterson 7

Sep 30, 2011

Bishop Watterson7
0.3%
Sep 30, 2011
Ponitz Tech14

beat Dunbar 6

Oct 29, 2020

Dunbar6
0.5%
Oct 29, 2020
Rootstown34

beat Woodridge 32

Oct 16, 2009

Woodridge32
0.5%
Oct 16, 2009
Batavia10

beat Portsmouth West 7

Oct 21, 2016

Portsmouth West7
0.6%
Oct 21, 2016
Harrison Central42

beat St Clairsville 35

Oct 4, 2019

St Clairsville35
0.6%
Oct 4, 2019
West Carrollton39

beat Piqua 34

Oct 4, 2019

Piqua34
0.6%
Oct 4, 2019
Edison23

beat Bellevue 22

Oct 29, 2021

Bellevue22
0.6%
Oct 29, 2021
Monroeville13

beat St Paul 0

Nov 2, 2019

St Paul0
0.6%
Nov 2, 2019
Troy21

beat Trotwood-Madison 20

Oct 9, 2015

Trotwood-Madison20
0.7%
Oct 9, 2015
Purcell Marian14

beat Brookville 7

Oct 17, 2020

Brookville7
0.8%
Oct 17, 2020